Plan now for how your business will thrive in the post-corona world

by Dr. Chris Dussold, Jon Harmon, David Kirshenbaum, Galina Wolinetz

As we noted in our last COVID-19 post, business leaders should be carefully focused on internal communications throughout this crisis—to encourage hope in their dislocated employees, preserve the corporate culture despite the obvious challenges, emphasize the enduring nature of the firm’s Mission / Purpose … and to unleash fresh-eyes thinking, creativity and collaboration on reframing the ongoing business’ core strategy to anticipate opportunities for growth and job security on the other side of the crisis.

Visionary leaders of businesses of all sizes will be readying not just for the economic rebound ahead but for the changed economy that will emerge.

First movers will be rewarded—as long as they have continued to maintain and build trust among all their stakeholders. This isn’t a time for self-serving opportunists—but it will be a uniquely opportune time for leaders who are committed to doing the right things the right way. Employees will notice the important decisions leadership makes and will be motivated to support and execute the refined business strategy.

Okay, but how do you envision what the other side of the crisis might look for your business, your sector and the economy as a whole? Here are some of our thoughts to help your team’s brainstorming:

Start with predictable direct consequences. Any businesses that are potentially vulnerable to fears for personal safety need to take radical action.

• Let’s start with the obvious: cruise lines, hotels, airlines and mass venues from sports events to casinos to conference organizers … each are going to need to reinvent their businesses to prioritize their customers’ health and safety.
• How will professional and college sports and related industries be affected? The issues aren’t just health and safety. There are also sponsorships, TV contracts, etc. Between reduced advertising budgets and lower disposable incomes, how will the sports business model evolve post-pandemic? Will billion-dollar arenas remain closed until a combination of new drugs, vaccines and time inoculate the public’s fear of contamination from group activity participation?
• Similar questions apply to any multi-user product or service: rental car fleets and ride-sharing services come immediately to mind: Are you going to jump into an Uber not knowing who was just in the car until a quick and effective sanitation is standardized before every new ride? Even then, how does Uber build enough trust from their customers that they believe the car is newly sanitized?

​Next, think about knock-on effects. For example, tens of millions of people are using video conferencing services in a big way at work and to stay connected to family and friends. Many, if not most, will continue to look for the visual immediacy of video connectivity. Zoom, Go to Meeting, Skype and Facetime will continue to grow in usage and importance. Some implications:

• As companies begin to recover economically, budgets will continue to be evaluated critically and business travel may remain tamped down in the near term.
• Remote work or work from home will likely become much more acceptable than before the crisis. The concept of required “face time” with your boss or “waiting out your boss” to go home will likely become less of a positive performance indicator for employees or a requirement to get ahead in their careers. And so, there will be less need to hire employees who live within driving distance to the office. This will open the door to expanding the pool of talent available to be brought to the entire country or even globally. This should also provide positive impact on hiring more women and other caregivers who may need more flexibility to work from home to care for their children or loved ones and enable them to work in a in a less conventional manner than a typical 9-to-5 day.
• Some businesses will become creative in making exceptional use of video tools for collaboration and innovation, giving those companies an important edge for developing growth opportunities in the new economy.
• Video connectivity will also remain important in society, providing new opportunities for “idea” producers to find large consumer markets. Next-gen shared-experience Netflix, Hulu and video gaming, for sure, but perhaps for some off-shoot of your service as well?

What are other implications for a lasting VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous) financing and operating environment?

• There will be a continual need for change management and flexibility. Uncertainty may be the only constant. Does your culture embrace change or fight it? How do you actively encourage fresh thinking?
• Operational risk assessment will be revisited in much the same way that banking has assessed these risks for years, but with a new data point and a new variable to include: the risk inherent in the global marketplace and society as a whole. So-called “black swan” events can no longer be discounted as too unlikely to include in risk analysis.

​ What changes will be lasting and how will they affect your business, your sector, your suppliers, your customers?

• How significantly will major industries such as airlines and hotels be impacted by structural changes in travel for pleasure and work?
• Production of health care workers’ Personal Protective Equipment will certainly continue until hospitals and government agencies at all levels have replenished and built much larger emergency supplies. But what about the people implications? How will healthcare be changed to accommodate the skills and labor necessary for future pandemic events?

​ Other macroeconomic questions with implications for funding at all levels:

• At what point do investors start to steer away from government debt, even US bonds?
• Who is buying the large amounts of sovereign debt that nations around the world are issuing to keep the global economy churning during the recovery?

Anticipate implications of massive government stimulus programs around the world to business and to consumers. The newly passed $2 trillion U.S. Federal stimulus may actually be a $6 trillion stimulus, and even with that there is a growing outcry for another recovery bill to try to slow the record number of unemployment claims we’ve seen the past two weeks.